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  • 'Ordinary Options - OPTIMIZED' ---Guide Series

    Ordinary Options - OPTIMIZED © 2014-2017

    Guide Series





    NOTE: This presentation should be viewed sequentially in the order (1) to (12)


    (1) OVERVIEW: Getting Started in Optimized Trading of Ordinary, Legitimate Stock Options - A Guide Series

    NOTE: Options trading may not be suitable for all investors. Trade with risk capital only.

    This short guide series is intended to be an introduction to 'SIMPLIFIED OPTIONS TRADING'. IT DEFINITELY WILL NOT BE A COURSE ON 'OPTIONS TRADING MADE SIMPLE'. Nothing of value regarding stock market trading and stock options trading especially, can be made simple.

    So how does this strategy relate to the topic customarily referred to as 'Binary Options'? --- Well, in name only.

    When this guide series is over, and if you are still with me and willing, you will be faced with only TWO (ie. binary) OPTION TRADING ALTERNATIVES in the market: Either BUYING [1] a CALL (you predict stock price will go up significantly), or [2] a PUT (you predict stock price will go down significantly) on a SINGLE, CONSTANT CITED STOCK, in a SINGLE, CONSTANT CITED OPTION STRIKE PRICE RANGE CATEGORY, for a SINGLE, CONSTANT CITED OPTION EXPIRATION PERIOD. Thus, I believe the strategy can accurately be referred to as 'binary'.

    Thus, when planning a trade, you can FOCUS all your attention on JUST ONE CRITICAL DECISION, and it is often a difficult one to make intelligently -- Is the base stock price likely to go UP or DOWN significantly within the next few days or perhaps up to a week or two.

    The base 'stock' you will be working with EXCLUSIVELY is actually a major, high volume, extremely liquid ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) having the symbol 'SPY'. It closely tracks the S&P 500. Options based on 'SPY' are extremely easy to buy and sell and have a very narrow 'bid/ask' price spread. That is, you will not be expending excessive funds on trading costs, which occurs when trading options on lower volume, ordinary stocks.

    The estimated leverage on the strategy is usually up to 20x or more. That is, if the base stock price INCREASES by 1%, for example, during your option holding period, your CALL OPTION value should increase by up to 20% or more. As another example, if the base stock price DECREASES by 2%, during your option holding period, your PUT OPTION value should increase by up to 40% or more. Of course, you must be successful in your prediction on the base stock (S&P 500) price movement direction and also nimble in your timing in order to realize a good profit on your endeavor. Negative leverage on loosing option plays can be very high since the option value can go to zero if it is allowed to expire worthless on its expiration date.

    With everything else remaining equal, the longer you hold a profitable option the lower the leverage since options lose value with time. The law of 'supply and demand' also impacts the leverage realized on the trade since options increasing in demand, for example, by buyers during the holding period will develop added value if all else remains constant.

    Your normal holding period for the option will generally be in the range from only a few days up to a perhaps a week.

    It is important that the option be closed as soon as market conditions indicate since options lose value with time, with the speed of decline increasing as the option approaches its expiration date.

    You can close out your position and cut losses, if desired, at any time of your choice. You can not lose more money than you commit, not counting normal, modest trade commissions to the brokerage firm. You will be dealing directly with your own, chosen, reputable, major, no-scam stock and options brokerage firm.

    Consider that a 20% return, for example, on your money in a week's time is equivalent to a 1040% return, calculated on an annual basis.
    • Is the strategy risky? - YES - (ANY strategy with up to 20x or more leverage is risky).
    • Is the strategy challenging? - DEFINITELY.
    • Is it fun? - I say, YES.







    Guide for the 'Ordinary Options - OPTIMIZED' strategy : "The Trend is Your Friend." -- Take profits to sell your options quickly and often. YOU WILL NEVER GO BROKE TAKING PROFITS. This can be done most conveniently using 'LIMIT' orders, usually when a pre-selected, reasonable profit has been achieved. If desired, Limit orders can also be set to activate near support/resistance levels during downward trends or near anticipated momentum-pause levels during upward trends reaching to new highs. SELL LIMIT ORDERS are very helpful for minimizing personal stress and option run-time. After the option sell, take a break until the likely direction trend of future market movement can be intelligently judged.

    PLEASE BE ADVISED: THE GREAT MAJORITY OF ORDINARY TRADERS LOSE MONEY BUYING OPTIONS, FOR A WIDE VARIETY OF REASONS. IT IS DEFINITELY NOT AN ENDEAVOR SUITABLE FOR THOSE FAINT OF HEART OR THOSE WISHING TO MAKE QUICK, EASY MONEY IN THE MARKET.


    For those readers who might be interested in learning how to trade ORDINARY, LEGITIMATE STOCK OPTIONS through a conventional brokerage firm, I suggest they start by reading a good book on Technical Analysis in order to better understand market fundamentals and stock price movements.

    One recommended book is:

    "Technical Analysis Plain and Simple: Charting the Markets in Your Language" (3rd Edition) Hardcover, by Michael N. Kahn

    The 352 page hardcover book can now be obtained new through Amazon, for example, for prices usually in the $16 to $21 range. Good Condition used copies are usually available through Amazon in the $6 to $7 price range.

    http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Anal.../dp/0137042019
    B. Steadman

  • #2
    (2) Technical Analysis, Plain and Simple: Charting the Markets in Your Language, by Michael N. Kahn, CMT

    http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Anal.../dp/0137042019

    For our readers who are seriously interested in following this Guide Series regarding: 'Ordinary Options - OPTIMIZED', I have listed below the paragraphs in Mr. Kahn's above referenced book that I believe are the most pertinent to the topic:

    Preface

    Part I - A Few Things You'll Need to Know Before You Begin
    Chapter 1: Required Background
    Chapter 2: What is Technical Analysis
    Chapter 3: What is a Chart?
    Chapter 4: Jargon You Cannot Avoid

    Part II - The Core of Chart Analysis
    Chapter 5: Concepts
    Chapter 6: What Are Supply and Demand in the Markets?
    Chapter 7: The Trend is Your Friend and So are Trendlines
    Chapter 8: See the Forest and the Trees
    Chapter 9: Chart Patterns -- When the Market Needs a Rest
    Chapter 10: Chart Patterns -- When the Market is Changing its Mind
    Chapter 11: Chart Patterns -- Explosions
    Chapter 12: Corrections in Perspective

    Part III - Technical Analysis in the Real World
    Chapter 13: What is there Other than Price?
    Chapter 14: Volume
    Chapter 15: Time
    Chapter 16: Sentiment
    Chapter 20: This isn't Brain Surgery

    Part IV - The Actual Process of Investing
    Chapter 22: How to Know if you are Wrong
    Chapter 23: Sometimes Being Wrong is Right
    Chapter 24: When to Sell
    Chapter 25: Bear Markets
    Chapter 26: A Word about Your Ego

    Part V - Tools and Case Studies
    Chapter 27: What do I Really Need to get Started?
    Chapter 28: Building your Technical Toolbox
    Chapter 29: Final Analysis
    Chapter 30: Case Study -- The Perfect World
    Chapter 31: Case Study -- The Real World
    Chapter 32: Case Study -- Bizarro World

    Part VI - Further on Down the Road
    Chapter 34: Introduction to Candlesticks
    Chapter 37: Technical Terms You May Have Heard
    B. Steadman

    Comment


    • #3
      (3) Reference Book - "Getting Started in Options", by Michael C. Thomsett

      http://www.amazon.com/Getting-Starte.../dp/0470480033

      Anyone interested in learning how to trade options needs a good reference book on the topic. I think the book, "Getting Started in Options" does an excellent job of clearly explaining the basics necessary for getting started.

      The 'Ordinary Options - OPTIMIZED' strategy involves BUYING OPTIONS on JUST ONE STOCK (actually an ETF having the symbol - SPY, which tracks the S&P 500) and then SELLING that option VERY RAPIDLY, generally within just a few days or perhaps up to a week or two. For readers interested in learning more about this strategy, I recommend conducting just a BRIEF PERUSAL of the following chapters in the book:

      Chapter 1 - Calls and Puts: Defining the Field of Play
      Chapter 2 - Opening, Closing,Tracking: How it All Works
      Chapter 3 - Buying Calls: Maximizing the Rosy View
      Chapter 4 - Buying Puts: The Positive Side of Pessimism
      B. Steadman

      Comment


      • #4
        (4) 'FREE STOCK CHARTS' can provide an excellent, powerful, streaming-realtime, free PLATFORM to view STOCK PRICE movements and utilize TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS.

        FreeStockcharts.com Website
        - http://www.freestockcharts.com/


        Screenshot of a FreeStockCharts.com presentation of the PRICE and TRADE VOLUME for SPY (ETF tracking the S&P 500) at 3 minute intervals for October 31, 2014:




        Screenshot of a FreeStockCharts.com presentation of the PRICE and 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS for SPY at 1 day intervals for the period May - October 2014:




        A useful ETF BASE-STOCK 'portfolio' to set up on FreeStockCharts.com for a 'SPY' options trader might consist of:

        SPY - Tracks the S&P 500 (Options Trading ETF)
        DIA - Tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Reference ETF)
        QQQ - Tracks the NASDAQ 100 Index (Reference ETF)
        IWM - Tracks the Russel 2000 Index (Reference ETF)
        IEF - Tracks the 7-10 year U.S. Treasury Bond Market (Reference ETF)


        Six useful TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS for DAILY TRACKING OF 'SPY' to view on FreeStockCharts.com for a 'SPY' options trader might consist of:

        (1) Volume (Number of Shares Traded) - http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/...htm#kanchor134

        Volume plots the number of shares traded per bar for the selected time frame. On the daily chart below, SPY has traded 84.7 million shares as of 11:56:02 AM. The color of the bars is determined by the net change in price from the previous bar: green = up, red = down. You can click on the Volume label to change the colors or disable the "Color by Price" feature.


        (2) Wilder's RSI 14 with 5 Day Moving Average Indicator Added (Momentum -- Leads Market) - http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/....htm#kanchor66

        RSI is a momentum oscillator that compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from zero to one hundred. RSI is an overbought-oversold indicator. Stocks with high RSI values can be interpreted as having overbought positions; stocks with low RSI values can be interpreted as having oversold positions.


        (3) Stochastics - http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/...htm#kanchor126
        An indicator that measures the price velocity of a particular stock or market index, Stochastics essentially shows us where price is trading within a given range. The boundaries of the range would be the high and the low for a specific time period determined by the user. A stochastic of 100% would mean price is currently trading at the extreme high of the range and a stochastic of 0 would mean price is trading at the extreme low.

        Stochastics, like the Relative Strength Index, helps us to determine whether price is overbought or oversold. When the Stochastics crosses up through the 80% line, it is considered overbought. Below 20% is considered oversold. The shorter the stochastic period, the more signals the indicator will produce. However, if your period setting is too short, the majority of your signals will be false. A moving average of the stochastic provides a basis for buy and sell signals. When an overbought stochastic turns down through its MA, a sell signal is produced. When an oversold stochastic moves up through its MA, a buy signal is produced.

        (4) MACD 12, 26, 9 (Moving Average -- Lags Market) - http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/...htm#kanchor113

        Actually need to set up TWO Indicators, MACD and MACD Histogram on the same pane.

        Gerald Appel created MACD for the purpose of producing specific trading signals. The primary reason for its popularity among technicians is the fact that it is a very easy indicator to interpret. Price moving averages help us to identify trends more effectively by smoothing out daily price fluctuations. Most of us are familiar with using crossovers of simple price moving averages to arrive at buy and sell signals (i.e. when price crosses up through its moving average a bullish condition exists). MACD is a very similar concept. However, MACD consists of three price moving averages, instead of just one or two Price Moving Average's.

        MACD is displayed as two separate lines in the indicator window. The first line plotted is actually the difference between two moving averages. The first MA should be set to a shorter term time frame (e.g. 12-day) and the second MA is typically set to a number about twice as long as the first. These parameters are determined by the user, based on his or her particular time horizons. ................................

        The histogram is the difference between the two MACD lines. Where the histogram crosses the zero line is the point where the two MACD lines are crossing (the difference between the two is zero).


        (5) Bollinger Bands® - (volatility and abnormal price activity) - http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/....htm#kanchor88
        Bollinger Bands were created by John A. Bollinger. They compare volatility and relative price levels over a period time. The indicator consists of three bands designed to encompass the majority of a security's price action: a Moving Average in the middle, an upper band (MA plus x -standard deviations) and a lower band (MA minus x standard deviations).

        Since the bands encompass normal price behavior, it is possible to identify abnormal price levels; the bands squeeze together when volatility is low and spread apart when volatility is high.

        (6) Derivative Oscillator 14, 5, 3, 9 - (advanced version of the Relative Strength Index) http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/....htm#kanchor94

        One possible trading strategy using the daily-compiled Derivative Oscillator indicator would be to buy either a put or call option, as appropriate, when the histogram bars cross the zero line.Hold the position while the histogram bars are lengthening, then exit the trade when the historgram bars start shortening. The trade should only be entered when other key market conditions and indicators are not warning of any significant conflict with the Derivative Oscillator.

        The above reproduced descriptions of the six TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS were obtained through the FreeStockCharts.com HELP tab at the top of the PLATFORM page - http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/
        B. Steadman

        Comment


        • #5
          (5) Money Management and Record Keeping

          I believe it's important for an options trader to routinely track his or her performance on all options plays and then use the resulting statistics in a disciplined, mathematically rigorous manner to judge how much risk capital should be allocated to each future play. This will maximize the compounded growth of capital.



          RISK CAPITAL MANAGEMENT:

          The 'KELLY' criterion, described below, has been widely used by professional traders and gamblers of all varieties to intelligently determine the allocation of risk capital:
          Ed Thorp, Jack Schwager, and the Kelly Criterion

          Value Investing World

          Excerpt from Jack Schwager’s interview with Ed Thorp in the book "Hedge Fund Market Wizards":

          The Kelly criterion is the fraction of capital to wager to maximize compounded growth of capital. Even when there is an edge, beyond some threshold, larger bets will result in lower compounded return because of the adverse impact of volatility. The Kelly criterion defines this threshold. The Kelly criterion indicates that the fraction that should be wagered to maximize compounded return over the long run equals:

          F = PW – (PL/W)

          where

          F = Kelly criterion fraction of capital to bet
          W = Dollars won per dollar wagered (i.e., win size divided by loss size)
          PW = Probability of winning
          PL = Probability of losing


          View the complete article at:

          http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2...and-kelly.html

          'KELLY' CRITERION CALCULATION EXAMPLE :

          Assume, based on your accumulated option trade statistics:

          PW = 0.60
          PL = 0.40
          W = 1.25

          Using the above 'Kelly' criterion formula, the fraction (F) of Risk Capital to consider using on each future option play calculates to be: 0.28. Thus, if your assigned total 'Risk Capital Bankroll is $4000, you might consider using up to $1120 on each future trade. However, it's statistically far better to undershoot the 'Kelly' calculated fraction than to overshoot it, so one needs to be conservative, such as by using 'half-Kelly', especially when just getting started.

          Trade profits add to your 'bankroll' so if you are successful, your 'Kelly' calculated capital to use on future trades will increase with time, assuming there are no significant changes in your 'Kelly' input data.

          The current price for a single 'slightly-in-the-money' options contract on 'SPY' is roughly $350. Thus, at least theoretically using the 'Kelly' criterion data cited in the above example, the trader would need a minimum of at least $1250 Risk Capital available to even start trading using the 'Ordinary Options - OPTIMIZED' program since $1250 x 0.28 = $350.



          RECORD KEEPING:

          I use the two 'MS Excel Spreadsheets' described in outline form below to track all option trades and then, periodically to calculate my updated 'Kelly' criterion fraction. The spreadsheets have been programed to calculate all the values indicated by an (*). All other values are input manually.

          (1) OPTIONS TRADE TRACKING:
          Date Open
          Date Closed
          Put (P) or Call (C)
          Strike $
          # of Option Contracts
          Option Open $
          Option Close $
          SPY Price Open $
          SPY Price Close $
          * Gross Profit $
          * Gross Profit %
          * Leverage x
          # Days Option Held
          Brokerage Firm Commission $
          * Net Profit $
          Net Profit (P) or Loss (L)
          * Bankroll $

          (2) KELLY CRITERION CALCULATION:
          Date of calculation
          Bankroll $
          Pw = probability of winning
          * Pl = probability of losing
          Ws = average win size $
          Ls = average loss size $
          * W = win size $ / loss size $
          * F = 'Kelly" fraction
          * Recommended Trade $
          B. Steadman

          Comment


          • #6
            (6) Worden Market Indicators and Other Tools of Particular Interest and Value to 'Ordinary Options - OPTIMIZED' Traders


            http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/....htm#kanchor75

            T2103 Zweig Breadth Thrust
            Developed by Martin Zweig, this indicator is calculated by taking a 10-day moving average of the number of advancing issues divided by the number of advancing issues plus the number of declining issues. Since it is a percentage indicator, it cannot go below 0 or above 100. However, it is rare that it goes below 40 or above 60. This indicator can be useful as an overbought/oversold indicator.

            T2108 Percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average

            T2117 52-week New High / New Low Ratio
            This indicator is calculated by taking the new highs for the last 52 weeks divided by news highs + new lows.

            The above listed Worden Indicators can be set up for viewing just like ordinary stocks in your FreeStockCharts.com Portfolio. They can be very helpful in judging the health of the entire market and predicting possible future price movement on 'SPY'.


            Two tools that are very helpful in judging the level of fear in the market are as follows:
            (1) 'VIX - CBOE Volatility Index'

            The ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge."

            http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp


            (2) CNN Money "Fear and Greed Index"

            The "Fear and Greed Index" is a CONTRARY INDICATOR of likely near-term stock movement. That is, if the index is showing 'Extreme Fear' it may be time to buy CALLS in anticipation of SPY going up. Conversely, if the index is showing 'Extreme Greed' it may be time to buy PUTS in anticipation of SPY going down.

            http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/


            LATEST ISM (Institute of Supply Management) REPORTS ON BUSINESS (ROB) for 'Manufacturing - PMI' and 'Non-Manufacturing- NMI' Areas of the Economy
            Readings ABOVE 50% indicate 'growth'. Readings BELOW 50% indicate 'contraction'.

            https://www.instituteforsupplymanage...port/index.cfm
            B. Steadman

            Comment


            • #7
              (7) The Trend is Your Friend



              Directional Movement ADX - http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/....htm#kanchor96
              Average Directional Index (ADX) is an indicator used to determine the strength of a prevailing trend. Its scale measures is zero to one hundred. Low readings typically indicate a weak trend; high values typically indicate a strong trend. ADX cannot be used to determine the direction of a particular trend - only its strength. The +DI and –DI indicators will show the direction of the trend.

              For option trading, I recommend that the ADX period, with added +DI and -DI indicators, be set at 10 with smoothing average set at 5 for optimum sensitivity.

              An 'up-trend' is usually the prevailing force when one observes a series of "HIGHER-HIGHS' and 'HIGHER-LOWS' on a 'daily bar chart' conveniently showing a record of SPY closing prices. A 'down-trend' is usually the prevailing force when one observes a series of 'LOWER-HIGHS' and 'LOWER-LOWS' on the chart.

              The ADX (Average Directional Index) Indicator, combined on the same daily chart trace with with +DI and -DI Directional Movement Indicators provides a supplemental and confirming picture of the actual trend condition.

              When the +DI and -DI lines start to move closer to each other, especially simultaneously, consider either taking option profits due to a significant but temporary up or down tick in SPY price or prepare for an actual trend reversal. I suggest you expand the ADX +DI -DI chart trace as much as practical vertically to view the data with the greatest sensitivity.

              I HATE horizontal 'trading ranges' since they typically involve very little price movement in the underlying stock (SPY).

              I usually try to stick with 'my friend' the prevailing TREND, whether it be UP or DOWN!

              Needless to say, one must treat any 'trend' intelligently. For example, if a strong up-trend has led the SPY price chart into a significant 'overbought' condition, as indicated by a very high Wilder's Relative Strength Index (RSI) then it is probably time to exit the market and wait for safer times!

              I find it very helpful to use the 'Drawing Tool' on FreeStockCharts.com to draw PARALLEL LINES through the upper and lower daily limits on a Candlestick Chart of SPY to form a TREND CHANNEL to better judge when the prevailing trend is weakening or reversing.
              Trend: click, drag and release the mouse to draw a trendline between two points on the chart. To draw a parallel trendline, click on an existing trendline, then click Create Parallel Line.

              http://www.freestockcharts.com/help/....htm#kanchor22



              For related material, also see Chapter 7, "The Trend is Your Friend and so are Trendlines" in the book, "Technical Analysis Plain and Simple", by Michael N. Kahn
              B. Steadman

              Comment


              • #8
                (8) Understanding Support and Resistance Levels for Stocks is Very Important

                Technical Analysis: Support And Resistance

                Investopedia Staff, By Cory Janssen, Chad Langager and Casey Murphy

                Excerpt:

                Once you understand the concept of a trend, the next major concept is that of support and resistance. You'll often hear technical analysts talk about the ongoing battle between the bulls and the bears, or the struggle between buyers (demand) and sellers (supply). This is revealed by the prices a security seldom moves above (resistance) or below (support).

                Figure 1
                - (shown in article)

                As you can see in Figure 1, support is the price level through which a stock or market seldom falls (illustrated by the blue arrows). Resistance, on the other hand, is the price level that a stock or market seldom surpasses (illustrated by the red arrows).

                Why Does it Happen?

                These support and resistance levels are seen as important in terms of market psychology and supply and demand. Support and resistance levels are the levels at which a lot of traders are willing to buy the stock (in the case of a support) or sell it (in the case of resistance). When these trendlines are broken, the supply and demand and the psychology behind the stock's movements is thought to have shifted, in which case new levels of support and resistance will likely be established.

                Round Numbers and Support and Resistance

                One type of universal support and resistance that tends to be seen across a large number of securities is round numbers. Round numbers like 10, 20, 35, 50, 100 and 1,000 tend be important in support and resistance levels because they often represent the major psychological turning points at which many traders will make buy or sell decisions.

                Buyers will often purchase large amounts of stock once the price starts to fall toward a major round number such as $50, which makes it more difficult for shares to fall below the level. On the other hand, sellers start to sell off a stock as it moves toward a round number peak, making it difficult to move past this upper level as well. It is the increased buying and selling pressure at these levels that makes them important points of support and resistance and, in many cases, major psychological points as well.

                Role Reversal

                Once a resistance or support level is broken, its role is reversed. If the price falls below a support level, that level will become resistance. If the price rises above a resistance level, it will often become support. As the price moves past a level of support or resistance, it is thought that supply and demand has shifted, causing the breached level to reverse its role. For a true reversal to occur, however, it is important that the price make a strong move through either the support or resistance. (For further reading, see Retracement Or Reversal: Know The Difference.)

                Figure 2
                - (shown in article)

                For example, as you can see in Figure 2, the dotted line is shown as a level of resistance that has prevented the price from heading higher on two previous occasions (Points 1 and 2). However, once the resistance is broken, it becomes a level of support (shown by Points 3 and 4) by propping up the price and preventing it from heading lower again.

                Many traders who begin using technical analysis find this concept hard to believe and don't realize that this phenomenon occurs rather frequently, even with some of the most well-known companies. For example, as you can see in Figure 3, this phenomenon is evident on the Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) chart between 2003 and 2006. Notice how the role of the $51 level changes from a strong level of support to a level of resistance.

                Figure 3
                - (shown in article)

                In almost every case, a stock will have both a level of support and a level of resistance and will trade in this range as it bounces between these levels. This is most often seen when a stock is trading in a generally sideways manner as the price moves through successive peaks and troughs, testing resistance and support.

                The Importance of Support and Resistance

                Support and resistance analysis is an important part of trends because it can be used to make trading decisions and identify when a trend is reversing. For example, if a trader identifies an important level of resistance that has been tested several times but never broken, he or she may decide to take profits as the security moves toward this point because it is unlikely that it will move past this level.

                Support and resistance levels both test and confirm trends and need to be monitored by anyone who uses technical analysis. As long as the price of the share remains between these levels of support and resistance, the trend is likely to continue. It is important to note, however, that a break beyond a level of support or resistance does not always have to be a reversal. For example, if prices moved above the resistance levels of an upward trending channel, the trend has accelerated, not reversed. This means that the price appreciation is expected to be faster than it was in the channel.

                ...........................................

                View the complete article at:

                http://www.investopedia.com/universi...hanalysis4.asp



                For related material, also see Chapter 6, "What are Supply and Demand in the Markets" in the book, "Technical Analysis Plain and Simple", by Michael N. Kahn
                B. Steadman

                Comment


                • #9
                  (9) If you're going to play the options market successfully, it's important to keep up with the world's financial market news and pertinent stock trading-related indicators.

                  Eight useful online financial news sources and trading-related tools are:

                  'Bloomberg'
                  'MarketWatch'
                  'The Wall Street Journal -- Online' - (Subscription Required)
                  CNBC Trading Nation
                  Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
                  iViewMarkets Sentiment Indicator
                  CNBC Pre-Markets
                  Bloomberg -"Economic Calendar"
                  B. Steadman

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    (10) STOP Orders, Option Price TARGETS, and Sell LIMIT Orders

                    STOP Orders:

                    After buying an option on SPY, I usually enter a STOP Order immediately to have that option automatically sold by the brokerage firm if its price drops below 50% of my purchase price. This is to handle serious unforeseen activity in the option price movement. If one sets the STOP Order with too tight a restriction, one may lose the option due to a minor, short-term 'blip'. Of course, one can always sell the option at any time desired to realize a relatively small loss for example, but one must be nimble to do this successfully since option prices move so rapidly.

                    Option Price TARGETS:

                    AT THE TIME OF AN OPTION BUY on SPY, it is sometimes desirable to determine an Option Price TARGET at which the Option could be sold in a few days or so for maximum profit. This often can be done by determining Support and Resistance Levels and predicted Trend Channel violations. The Option Price TARGET often needs to be changed as events develop.

                    As soon as the Option Price TARGET appears to be achievable, the pre-established STOP Order typically needs to be changed to an appropriate Sell LIMIT Order.

                    Sell LIMIT Order: On relatively rare occasions I will enter a Sell LIMIT Order to have the SPY Option sold automatically by the brokerage firm when my Option Price TARGET is reached. (I normally CONSIDER entering a Sell-to-Close order on an option play when the daily-compiled Derivative Oscillator histogram bars for SPY start shortening)

                    Option prices can move extremely rapidly and sometimes SPY will briefly touch a Support or Resistance Level, for example, for just a few seconds before bouncing back and the opportunity to sell the option at the desired price is lost, perhaps permanently.

                    To calculate a BEST ESTIMATE of the Option Price to enter on the Sell LIMIT Order, first take the absolute value of the difference between the CURRENT PRICE ON SPY and the TARGET PRICE ON SPY. Then add or subtract, depending if the option is a PUT or CALL, the value of this difference to the STRIKE PRICE ON MY PURCHASED OPTION. Finally, look at the quoted Option Price for the ADJUSTED STRIKE PRICE and enter this as a Sell LIMIT Order. The calculation is only approximate and needs to be repeated as SPY approaches the TARGET Price. Good judgement is required. Many changing factors can influence option price. I have an Excel Spread Sheet set up to do the calculation automatically whenever desired.

                    Example:
                    • One 206.5 SLIGHTLY IN THE MONEY Strike Price CALL Option for SPY is bought for 3.60 (total contract cost = $360)
                    • SPY is at about 206.5 at the time the option is bought
                    • The TARGET for SPY is 209.5
                    • After two days, SPY has increased in price to 208.5
                    • The quoted price for the 206.5 Strike Option has now increased to 4.97
                    • The absolute value of the difference between the calculation time price on SPY and the TARGET price on SPY is now 209.5 - 208.5 = 1
                    • The Adjusted Strike Price is 206.5 - 1 = 205.5
                    • The quoted Option Price for the 205.5 Strike Price Option is now 5.68
                    • Set the Option Sell LIMIT Price on the 205.0 Strike Price Option at 5.68.
                    • SPY should be at about 209.5 at the time the 5.68 price for the 206.5 Strike Price Option is reached.
                    • For best accuracy, the Sell LIMIT Price may need to be changed somewhat as one gets closer to the arrive time and price proximity of the TARGET.
                    • If all goes as planned, the Option can be sold for about 5.68 = $568 for a 58%, $208 net profit in about 3 days. Calculated LEVERAGE on this sample trade was 40X.
                    B. Steadman

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      (11) Selection of a suitable OPTIONS TRADING PLATFORM

                      I have only had experience with one Options Trading Platform and that is the platform offered by the Charles Schwab brokerage firm. It has performed well for me over the years in that it is a FULL SERVICE online brokerage house, with good stock and options trading tools, customer service, and year-end tax record-keeping and reporting. - http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/active_trader

                      The following site presents a review of other options trading platforms:

                      2015 BEST Online Options Trading Review

                      The 11 platforms reviewed for 2015 are:

                      OptionsHouse
                      Trade Monster
                      TradeKing
                      TD Ameritrade
                      E-Trade
                      Fidelity
                      TradeStation
                      optionsXpress
                      SogoTrade
                      SpeedTrader
                      Scottrade
                      B. Steadman

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        (12) Buying and Selling Options on 'SPY'

                        1. Movements, up or down, on the price of the ETF -- 'JNK' (Junk Bonds) versus IEF (10 year treasury bonds) often tend to PRECEDE or at least CONFIRM movements on the price of 'SPY'. Thus, one can set up a 'RELATIVE STRENGTH (RS) INDICATOR' associated with the DAILY CHART for 'JNK' Versus IEF to help determine if SPY will soon be going UP or DOWN. That is, if the trend-line of the daily compiled Relative Strength of JNK vs IEF is going UP, consider buying CALLs on SPY. If the trend-line of the Relative Strength of JNK vs IEF is going DOWN, consider buying PUTs on SPY .

                        2. If I'm relatively confident the price of 'SPY' will go UP or DOWN by at least 2% or more, without falling back significantly, during the next few days or up to a week or two I will buy either puts (market going down) or calls (market going up) as appropriate. I look especially carefully at the charts for the daily-compiled MACD and daily-compiled ADX +DI/-DI to see when PREDICTED NEAR-TERM CROSS-OVER STARTS TO APPEAR LIKELY on both indicators before CONSIDERING BUYING the option. For MACD, this often occurs soon after the histogram bars have started shortening after a trend change. For maximum safety, its best to buy CALLS when the RSI (Wilder's Relative Strength Indicator) on SPY is in '50% to oversold' territory and buy PUTS when the RSI is in '50% to overbought' territory.

                        3. I prefer to buy the option when its price is nearing the appropriate edge of its trend channel. That is, I try to buy the option when the SPY price is TEMPORARILY PULLING BACK from the assumed current trend in order to maximize early profit gains on the option. For PUTS, this is the midpoint to upper edge of the trend channel. For CALLS, this is the midpoint to lower edge.

                        4. I ALWAYS buy the put or call EXPIRING ABOUT 3 MONTHS FROM THE TIME OF OPTION PURCHASE. This helps insure that the 'TIME VALUE' of the option does not decrease too much during the expected, SHORT (a few days to a week or two) option holding period.

                        5. I RECOMMEND buying the 'APPROXIMATE 2 % OUT-OF-THE-MONEY' PUT or CALL to help balance option profit potential with affordability.

                        6. I sometimes choose to enter a STOP order to have the option sold automatically if its price drops by 50% due to some unforeseen price movement in SPY.

                        7. I watch the various indicator charts and the price action on SPY carefully during the option holding period.

                        8.Once the histogram bars on the MACD cross the midline level, they normally start getting longer. I will often CONSIDER selling the option when the MACD histogram bars FIRST START SHORTENING. A pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows, as conveniently seen on a bar chart, is a good confirming indication of an existing up-trend. Conversely, a pattern of lower-highs and lower-lows is a good indication of an existing down-trend.

                        A strong SELL SIGNAL can often be seen when a significant price violation of the TREND CHANNEL occurs on the candlestick chart for SPY.

                        Another strong SELL SIGNAL can usually be seen when the ADX +DI and -DI lines closely approach one another or especially if they actually cross.


                        9. If applicable, I will simply change the existing STOP order to a SELL LIMIT order when a predicted target price (such as a support or resistance level) for SPY has been hit. However, I will often simply enter a SELL LIMIT ORDER at the time of option purchase to automatically sell the option when a desired and realistic profit on the trade has been reached.

                        10. If the price action on SPY does NOT at any time seem to be performing as expected, I SELL THE OPTION IMMEDIATELY and take a loss on the play.

                        11. However, if the price action on SPY does perform as expected, I will make up to a 20X or greater leverage return on my invested capital. For example, if SPY increases 2% during the option holding period, I will make up to a 40% or more return, not counting commission expense.

                        12. I record my wins and losses on an Excel Spreadsheet, including pertinent statistics, and then either celebrate or cry a little, depending on the trade outcome. - See Chapter 5, "Money Management and Record Keeping".

                        THE END
                        Updated: 1/15/2019

                        ps. The technique of INITIALLY SELLING either CASH-COVERED PUT or STOCK-COVERED CALL options on stable, quality, high-trade-volume stocks or ETFs is outside the scope of this Guide Series since it deviates from the simple BINARY OPTIONS concept. Nevertheless, it is an exciting and potentially profitable endeavor.

                        Working with initially SOLD options is inherently LESS RISKY than trading BUY options since the time-portion of the total option price DECREASES as the option ages. That is, TIME works to the advantage of the option seller but works to the disadvantage of the option buyer. Unfortunately, the ultimate profit potential is lower for SELL options than it is for BUY options. The maximum profit that can be achieved on a SELL option is limited to the 'premium' obtained at the initial sale and it is obtained when the option is allowed to expire to zero value. The maximum profit that can be achieved on a BUY option varies greatly with the change in price of the underlying stock.

                        Furthermore, for each COVERED CALL option contract SOLD one must MAINTAIN 100 shares (or multiples) of the underlying STOCK, valued at the Strike price, in his or her brokerage account as long as the option is held. For each COVERED PUT option contract SOLD one must MAINTAIN the amount of CASH in the account required to buy back the 100 shares (or multiples) of the underlying stock as long as the option is held.

                        SELLING options has profit limitations and is somewhat more complex than BUYING OPTIONS but can be very rewarding while having the MAJOR ADVANTAGE of being LESS RISKY.

                        I FAR PREFER SELLING (to open) OPTIONS, compared to buying options because the technique is so much LESS RISKY. The natural direction of the main market is up, except during Bear Markets. My FAVORITE OPTION TRADE, when appropriate in UP markets, is SELLING slightly-in-the-money, approximate 1-week-to-expiration PUTs on the ETF symbol, IWM (Russell 2000). It trades in very high volumes with a narrow bid/ask spread, and is relatively stable and predictable. Its options are about 20% more volatile and considerably less costly than options on SPY, which are two major advantages.

                        Usually, the worse that can happen on a PUT sale if you predict wrong on market direction, is that you will be assigned the stock. You can then either hold the stock (1) till it at least recovers its value or (2) SELL A COVERED CALL ON THE STOCK and allow it to be purchased from you at a price acceptable to you.


                        As an alternative to selling options on IWM, as explained above, one can also profitably sell options on ANY HIGH QUALITY, HIGH TRADE VOLUME STOCK of your choice.

                        Initially Sold options can be bought back whenever judged wise, appropriate and profitable. However, when held through the expiration date, funds from the entire initial option sale can be retained in your account, while incurring only the single initial option sale commission charge.


                        When trading options, it's important to remember to always seek a profitable balance between FEAR and GREED.

                        One's top priority should always be AVOID LOSING MONEY ON THE TRADE. Remember the Wall Street saying, "You can never go broke taking profits!"
                        B. Steadman

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