Bitcoin-?

[bsteadman]

"Head and Shoulders" pattern top on Bitcoin price,12/18/2017 - ??? -- as yet NOT confirmed.by significant drop below about $13,000

Remember - "Bulls make money. Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered."

[InspectorSmith]

I'm hoping that the Bitcoin price will continue to drop. $9000 or less would be excellent. That would be and excellent time to buy.

Over the last month a whole new crowd of people jumped into Bitcoin. Many were careless and didn't understand things like:

(1) Bitcoin is an irreversible payment system by design so it is not possible to reverse or cancel a sent transaction. You can't redo or cancel a transaction.

(2) Bitcoin is not centralized. There's no customer service number.

(3) Bitcoin.com is just one domain name used to promote Bitcoin. Bitcoin.com is not an official website. Just like nobody owns the email technology, nobody owns the Bitcoin network. As such, nobody can speak with authority in the name of Bitcoin.

(4) You cannot be careless with your private key or your 12 word backup phrase. If you lose those you will likely never, ever, be able to access your Bitcoin.

One exception may be if you are using an exchange such as Coinbase.com or Gemini.com where your bitcoin is stored in an account and you yourself don't have access to the private key and you log into your account with a 'password.' For example, if you lose your 'password' at you Coinbase you may reset in very limited circumstances: (a.) Reset it from a device you have previously used to access Coinbase or (b.) Reset it from a location (IP address) you've previously used to access Coinbase. Also keep in that if Coinbase ever shuts downs your bitcoin (that you had stored in your 'account' with them) is gone too.

(5) You cannot send Bitcoin to a Bitcoin Cash (nor vice versa). If you send Bitcoin to a Bitcoin Cash address what you are really doing is sending Bitcoin to a Bitcoin address which is identical to the Bitcoin Cash address. The only way to recover the Bitcoin is to import (or you may 'sweep') the Bitcoin Cash private key into a Bitcoin wallet. The keys are the same on both chains (i.e., if you have the private key for specific Bitcoin Cash address then that key also works for the Bitcoin address).

(6) If you want to trade Bitcoin for Bitcoin Cash (or any other coin, e.g., Litecoin) you'll need to use an exchange. For example, ShapeShift.io - https://www.shapeshift.io/

(7) There is not a set price for Bitcoin. For example (as of right now):

https://coinmarketcap.com/ - $12,536.70

https://blockchain.info/stats - $12,339.52

https://www.coinbase.com/charts - $12,850.01

https://gemini.com/ - $12869.42

https://www.cryptocompare.com/ - $ 12,420.46


The foregoing are just several examples of the things that those new to Bitcoin (especially those who jumped in late November 2017 thru late December 2017) did not (and many still do not) understand about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general.

In any event, there's a lot of angry people out there now. Sorry about that. However, I was really and truly hoping that the I'd get another chance to buy Bitcoin at a low price! I welcome the price drop (who knows really if it will continue to drop. We might wake in a few days to $20,000 BTC price)!

Lastly, please also consider the Bitcoin block size vs Bitcoin Cash block size. One of the other 'problems' with Bitcoin might be the 'block size' which, in other words, is the amount of transactions which can be confirmed within a block or certain period of time (btw, off topic but BitShares is the champion with 100,000 transactions per second!). One of the problems during late November (2017) thru late December (2017) was (and still now as we prepare to enter 2018) the large number of transactions and the time it takes to confirm those transactions. The primary reason that the Bitcoin Cash 'hard fork' of the Bitcoin blockchain was made in early August 2017 (or at Bitcoin block 504031) was to change the Bitcoin code to allow for larger blocks (which means that more transactions an fit within the block).

Bitcoin too can increase the block size (which may be a good idea) (this would probably also be a 'hard fork' but remember that you will not lose any coins, your coins are on the new chain too).

However, Bitcoin (like all cyrptocurrencies aside from maybe Ripple which is controlled by bankers) is decentralized. No one person controls Bitcoin and at least 51% of Bitcoin 'nodes' (think of 'nodes' as thousands of Bitcoin severs across the world, nobody knows exactly how many there are because some are silent) would need to upgrade their code.

In any event, please, please keep the BTC price dropping! I'd like to buy up Bitcoin at a good price!

Lastly, here's a question: Has the Bitcoin price really and truly dropped?

Last month - November 26, 2017 - Bitcoin was $8,944.60 (historical screenshot - https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20171126/ )

Today - December 30, 2017 - Bitcoin is $12,536.70

[bsteadman]

"Head and Shoulders" pattern top on Bitcoin price,12/18/2017 - ??? -- as yet NOT confirmed.by significant drop below about $13,000

Bitcoin was listed this morning at about $10,000 on the Cryptocurrency Market Cap site. My rough estimate for the short term PRICE REVERSAL TARGET LEVEL, based on technical analysis of the confirmed 'Head and Shoulders' top, is at about $6000. ($20,000 at Head minus $13,000 at Shoulder = $7,000. Then, $13,000 at Shoulder minus $7000, difference H to S, = $6000 Target Level) We'll see!

[InspectorSmith]

$6000 Bitcoin would be great for me (I'd love to buy at that price!) but I doubt that it will happen. The cryptocurrency market is not the stock market. The conventional metrics are not applicable to cryptocurrenncy.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see $100,000 Bitcoin at some point in 2018.

The only real trouble (in my opinion) that Bitcoin may face is that Bitcoin Cash may become Bitcoin. I have absolutely no idea if that will happen.

There are two methods of modify the bitcoin code: Soft Forks and Hard Forks. The difference between the two depends on what was added to, removed from or modified in the code.

Soft Fork: (the following are my words and shouldn't be taken as an official definition) - Anyone running a Bitcoin node may (if they want to) upgrade to a new version of the code, and due to specific changes in the code, still be compatible with previous blocks on the blockchain.

Hard Fork: (the following are my words and shouldn't be taken as an official definition) - Anyone running a Bitcoin node may (if they want to) upgrade to a new version of the code, and due to specific changes in the code, no longer be compatible with previous blocks on the blockchain. When this happens and new chain is created (like a fork in the road) and the new chain contains the same amount of coins and the same addresses with the same balances. (e.g., If you have 1000 Bitcoin at the time, or really not a 'time' but rather a specific block number where the fork occurred, will also now have 1000 Bitcoin Cash).

After that it's possible that one of the chains may eventually be abandoned. However, it's not really possible to kill a blockchain because anyone with a copy of the ledger could bring it back to life.

Some people how aren't super familiar might think that hard forks are just creating money from nothing and that new forks are going to be popping of all the time now. However, it's just not practical. It takes expensive hardware and lots of electricity and money to keep a blockchain up all by yourself. Moreover, unless you plan on running all the nodes yourself and all the miners yourself you'll need to convince other's to use the same code for their node and then convince other miners to mine your chain. Then there needs to be a purpose to use the coins (i.e., send from one address to another). What are the coins good for? Who even wants the coins?

Lastly, and somewhat unrelated to the foregoing, it's important to note that Bitcoin is peer to peer digital cash and also a store of value. However, many other cryptocurrencies were created for specific utility. For example, some cryptos give you the ability to use a product or a service. A much more effective system than the old system that companies like Microsoft and Adobe once used (serial numbers) for their software which lost money because of 'cracked' software (modified to use without the serial number).

Some cryptos are designed specifically to give you access to a platform. For example, the SALT crypto is needed to register (annually) to be eligible to receive loans (cash money) for Bitcoin collateral. Moreover, the SALT crypto can be used to pay back the cash loan.

There are many other specific use cases for other cryptos. It's not all pump and dumps that keep the coins trading (although there are some coins without utility and even their plans for future utility are, at best, dubious).

[bsteadman]

This morning at about 7 am, Bitcoin is priced at about $12,000. It is still under the $13,000 level. $13,000 was originally the SUPPORT LEVEL at the shoulder line of the confirmed 'Head and Shoulders' chart pattern. Now, being approached from below, $13,000 has become a RESISTANCE LEVEL.

Check out the Bitcoin Chart, showing a 3 month span, at: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts

IMO, this is not a healthy looking chart! The $13,000 resistance level has not yet been broken and, very importantly, trade volume is relentlessly dropping.

I continue to believe that BTC will drop to about $6000 before rebounding upward.

[InspectorSmith]

Bruce, I hope you're right $6000 Bitcoin because I've got some bitcoin coming around the first of February (a specific US dollar amount which will be paid in bitcoin) and I'd love to get it the $6000 rate!

However, the Bitcoin price drop during the last 24 hours is due to Indian banks:

Indian Banks Suspending Bitcoin Exchange Accounts

https://cointelegraph.com/news/india...hange-accounts

[InspectorSmith]

Bruce,

What are your thoughts on Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) Bitcoin Futures?

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt...itcoin-futures

It seems like this would be easy (?) to manipulate if one has enough money (a lot of money). One could buy up a large amount of bitcoin itself and cause the price to rise or one could sell a lot of bitcoin itself and make the price drop. One man could do it (if he has a lot of money) or a group of men could work together could do it.

Or is that a common strategy that is accepted with futures?

Or am I making this all seem much too simple?

I admit that I don't know what I'm talking about regarding futures (aside from my brief experience at Obama Binary Options (scam brokers in RD) back in 2014.

If you have time could you please share your thoughts on this subject? Thanks.

[bsteadman]

What are your thoughts on Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) Bitcoin Futures?

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It seems like this would be easy (?) to manipulate if one has enough money (a lot of money). One could buy up a large amount of bitcoin itself and cause the price to rise or one could sell a lot of bitcoin itself and make the price drop. One man could do it (if he has a lot of money) or a group of men could work together could do it.

I don't have any personal experience trading on the futures markets although I do extensive trading on the options market which is somewhat related. However, I did a little internet searching on the topic and located the recent, below linked article titled "Market Manipulation 101: Bitcoin Futures" that I believe is helpful.

https://www.ethnews.com/market-manip...itcoin-futures

Based on what I read in the article, it seems to me that intentional 'manipulation' of the futures market could indeed influence the market price of Bitcoin.

Consider:

Note: Each CBOE bitcoin futures contract relates to the underlying price of one bitcoin.

The benchmark price is the single most important factor in whether bettors win or lose money on their bitcoin futures. As such, CBOE's bitcoin futures contracts could be vulnerable to manipulation because the 4 p.m. ET [/COLOR]Gemini auction[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.8)] is the sole determinant of the benchmark price. The auction is potentially a single point of failure.

Amplifying the problem is the auction's relatively low volume, which could make the ultimate settlement price susceptible to the undue influence of a rogue trader or group of traders.

To learn more, ETHNews spoke with Andrew Verstein, an associate professor of law at Wake Forest University. Verstein is an expert in the area of commodities regulation, and he helped explain how the Commodity Exchange Actis designed to protect against price manipulation.

What it boils down to is that the manipulation of commodity prices is a crime. Verstein suggested that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has a "somewhat timid reputation," but that might be due to its historically less-aggressive mandate.

While the Securities and Exchange Commission is explicitly tasked with investor protection, the CFTC's stated mission is to "protect market users and the public from fraud, manipulation, and abusive practices related to the sale of commodity futures and options and to foster open, competitive, and financially sound commodity futures and option markets."

However, proving that price manipulation occurred can be challenging in the commodities markets, said Professor Verstein, so the CFTC sometimes settles cases rather than letting them play out in the courts. Bitcoin futures, in particular, present an interesting case study because typical defenses might not hold up in front of a judge.

In physical markets, institutional traders might claim innocence based on the timely delivery of tangible commodities. However, bitcoin is not physical and it does not appear that institutions are purchasing troves of bitcoin on behalf of clients at regular intervals (think five-minute intervals).

Based on my experience following the LONG-TERM, GROSS MANIPULATION by wealthy and powerful traders in the SILVER market, the CFTC can be a 'toothless tiger' when faced with situations similar, I believe, to the BITCOIN market.

I believe it's POSSIBLE that the nefarious manipulation of the FUTURES PRICE of Bitcoin could influence its MARKET PRICE.

[Bilkymesk]

Bitcoin's price has plunged by around $25billion in the past 24 hours and the cryptocurrency seems set to suffer more disappointing days on the markets. I just found a calculator http://cloudminingcalculator.online/?u=v on the web among many cloud mining sites. It works for many type of crypto currency like BTC, ETH, LTC etc, hope it helps. Try it out and share me your result with this cloud mining calculator. Good luck!

[InspectorSmith]

Bilkymesk thanks for the spam and the fud. What's your advice, buy high and sell low? Most cloud mining sites (with a few exceptions) are scams.

[InspectorSmith]

Top 5 Tips For Handling A Bitcoin Crash
by Doug Polk Crypto
Published on Feb 2, 2018

[InspectorSmith]

Myself, I believe that Bitcoin (and Bitcoin Cash) is doing exceptionally well especially when considering all of the aggressive assaults by world governments, bankers, mainstream media and traditional investors. A few examples provided below:

(1) January 30, 2018: Facebook bans all Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ads.

We’ve created a new policy that prohibits ads that promote financial products and services that are frequently associated with misleading or deceptive promotional practices, such as binary options, initial coin offerings and cryptocurrency.

..

This policy is intentionally broad while we work to better detect deceptive and misleading advertising practices, and enforcement will begin to ramp up across our platforms including Facebook, Audience Network and Instagram. We will revisit this policy and how we enforce it as our signals improve.

..

https://www.facebook.com/business/ne...d-services-ads


(2) February 3, 2018: The Wall Street Journal - Bitcoin Investors Had a Tough Week. Credit-Card Companies Are About to Make It Tougher

Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America to ban purchases of bitcoin with credit cards issued by them

Three of the largest banks in the U.S. said Friday that they would no longer permit credit-card customers to buy bitcoin with their credit cards. The decisions were announced after a brutal week for bitcoin prices, which have plummeted more than 50% from their peak in December.

...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin...her-1517692882


(3) 2018: Hawaiian bureaucrats propose a bill which will require that anyone who wants to send and receive bitcoin will need to have license to do so.

https://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/sessi...ls/SB3082_.HTM


(4) All day and everyday: Misleading news from US mainstream when reporting on Bitcoin related matters in China, Korea and India.

[InspectorSmith]

Hi Bruce,

You were right about the price dropping down to $6000-$6200.

I know that you're very experienced investor but do you believe that the convention metrics are applicable to cryptocurrency?

Opponents of bitcoin seem to be working pretty hard, and around the clock, to stop people from using bitcoin (by force and fear). (What's next, anyone caught using Bitcoin will be subject to a Court order banning them from using computers and smartphones for a period of 12 months, repeat offenders subject to fine of $100,000 and $1000 hours of community service, habitual offenders subject to Guantanamo bay like holding facility?)

Also could it be that some of the larger money players who missed out on Bitcoin in the hundred dollars days (and $10 days) needed a way to buy their way in (at a low price)?

Do you believe that this $6000 is the bottom? Or is it possible that in the coming days we may see $3000?

Lots of people seem to believe that Bitcoin does not have intrinsic value. I believe that permissionless digital payments is intrinsic value (how couldn't it be?). You may believe (or maybe not) that Bitcoin is just an investment like many other investments you've previously made and you stand to make some money and hopefully a lot. However, it's much more than just a regular investment. Permissionless digital payments means that, unlike your bank account and bank cards and any other digital transfer of wealth, you don't need permission to send and receive. It's Bitcoin and anyone can use it. You can be your own bank.

[bsteadman]

.................................................. .........

........ do you believe that the convention metrics are applicable to cryptocurrency?.

YES! I think most of the same metrics and human psychological dynamics are applicable to both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market. These include fear vs greed, timid vs aggressive, investment vs speculation, buy-and-hold vs play-the-market, average vs wealthy, saved-money vs borrowed-money, abandon-positions-at-temporary-bottoms vs buy-when-blood-is-running-in the-streets, and average-honest-participants-who-often-wonder-what-is happening vs powerful-savy-and-often-dishonorable-players-with-the-financial-political-and-professional-ability-to-somewhat-control-what-is-happening. Consequently, I think that the usual indicators such as trend lines, support and resistance levels, momentum metrics, and oversold/undersold tools do indeed apply.

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Do you believe that this $6000 is the bottom? Or is it possible that in the coming days we may see $3000?

I don't know about or have any opinion regarding a LONGER-TERM BOTTOM, IF ANY, for Bitcoin or any other QUALITY cryptocurrency. However, I think we will at least get a very SUBSTANTIAL REBOUND UPWARDS at around Bitcoin $6200. Consequently, I plan to replace my BisShares Cash with regular BitShares when Bitcoin reaches about this level. In fact, I probably will start getting excited if Bitcoin trade volume starts increasing dramatically and may make my trade even before Bitcoin drops to $6200. (See the Bitcoin price and trade volume chart,1 month and 3 month spans, at: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts )
................................................. ...............

Lots of people seem to believe that Bitcoin does not have intrinsic value. I believe that permissionless digital payments is intrinsic value (how couldn't it be?). You may believe (or maybe not) that Bitcoin is just an investment like many other investments you've previously made and you stand to make some money and hopefully a lot. However, it's much more than just a regular investment. Permissionless digital payments means that, unlike your bank account and bank cards and any other digital transfer of wealth, you don't need permission to send and receive. It's Bitcoin and anyone can use it. You can be your own bank

I agree that Bitcoin and some other quality cryptocurrentcies do indeed have a UNIQUE, INTRINSIC, PRIVATE, and EASILY-TRANSFERRED VALUE that is not shared by other traditional holdings .

I have absolutely no doubt that SOME GOVERNMENT CRYPTOCURRICIES (and I desperately hope ALSO A FEW HIGH QUALITY; DECENTRALIZED, PRIVACY-BASED, CRYPTOCURRIENCIES) will become the dominant form of easily transferred wealth in many countries, including the USA. My greatest fear remains (because the governments of the world HATE privacy-based cryptocurrencies and will do everything possible to cause their demise) what is implied by the below linked articles. GOVERNMENTS HATE COMPETITION! For example, I strongly believe that World Government organizations such as the IMF will attempt to set up their own, no-privacy cryptocurrencies so they can maintain control of the people and especially their own tracking and taxing power.

IMF Head: Cryptocurrency Could Be the Future. Really. -- http://fortune.com/2017/10/02/bitcoi...stine-lagarde/

Senate spotlights virtual currencies as bitcoin price swings - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g...-idUSKBN1FQ0KU

Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action. George Washington First president of US (1732 - 1799) -
Source: http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/4238.html

[bsteadman]

Following up: The Bitcoin price dropped to a low of about $6080 today on February 6th. However, due to a prior time commitment, I was not able to get to a computer and convert my BitUSD holdings back to Bitshares as planned until the Bitcoin price had increased to about $7035 on the same day.

I hope the price of Bitcoin rallies upward from here for many months to come, with the price of Bitshares generally increasing somewhat proportionately.

[bsteadman]

Bitcoin becomes just like everything else on Wall Street as correlation with stocks jumps to 2-year high

• On a 90-day basis, the correlation between the daily percent returns of the cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 is 33 percent, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.
• That's the highest since the cryptocurrency started gaining public attention in January 2016 and well surpasses the prior high of 19 percent in mid-December, Colas said.
• "Bitcoin's attraction for institutional investors may increase correlation," Morgan Stanley equity analysts said in a separate note, raising the question of whether greater correlation with stocks limits bitcoin's potential as an investment asset.

CNBC
by Evelyn Cheng
2/8/2018

View the complete article at:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/bitc...year-high.html