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Trump focuses on four key states
The Hill
by Ben Kamisar
10/16/2016
Excerpt:
Donald Trump’s campaign is narrowing its focus onto four key swing states as the GOP nominee’s path to the White House continues to constrict.
Sweeping Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania appear to be the Republican’s best chance at winning 270 electoral votes, experts and Republicans concur.
The map continues to tighten for Trump as he slips in the polls, most of which haven’t even taken into account recent allegations of sexual assault and harassment.
“We are in the unenviable position of having to draw the inside straight and win all of those swing states,” said Ohio GOP chairman Matt Borges.
Falling short, or losing once-Republican strongholds of Utah or Arizona would force Trump to string together a handful of other swing states to make up ground.
Here’s the look at where Trump stands in the key states on his tenuous path to victory.
Ohio
The reliable Republican bellwether will be just as vital in 2016 as it is for Republicans in any other year.
By Friday, the RealClearPolitics average of the state polls puts the state at an effective tossup—Clinton up just 1.6 percent.
While Trump has made inroads with rural voters thanks to his tough-on-trade message, he’s running miles behind Sen. Rob Portman, who is running away in his reelection by a safe double-digit margin.
Borges admitted he’s had a “couple of uncomfortable conversations” with Trump recently to urge him to stick to the script and not alienate Portman voters by attacking him as part the GOP establishment that has drawn Trump’s ire.
“If he allows us to execute our strategy and sticks to a message that will work here, we will deliver Ohio,” he said.
“Unfortunately, we have a situation where if we have our message stomped all over, it makes executing some of those things difficult.”
Borges argued that the party and Trump have made strong efforts to shore up the GOP vote—with Trump as a boon for new registrants and the success by the party as a whole to bring on one million more registered Republican voters than in 2012. And he added that strong GOP role models in the state like Portman can help protect the party’s brand from Clinton attacks.
But he admitted that while Ohio may not be a necessity for Democrats, it’s almost certainly required for the GOP.
Pennsylvania
As of now, the Keystone State is the steepest climb for Republicans of the four must-wins. Clinton sits at an 8.4 percent Clinton lead in the RCP average as of Friday, as Trump hasn’t led in a major poll for months.
And Democrats have held the state in every presidential election since 1988, despite numerous attempted incursions by Republicans.
Borges noted that GOP presidential tickets have long targeted the state, but it turns into “fools gold.”
“I wonder if the dynamic is truly that much different this time,” he added.
Geoffrey Skelley, a political analyst with the University of Virginia, pointed to a recent Bloomberg poll that showed Trump down by a margin of 28 points in the four suburban Philadelphia counties. Mitt Romney lost those counties by about 9 points in 2012 and still lost the state.
With Clinton expected to clean up in Philadelphia and Trump looking better in the rural part of the state, those suburban counties are key.
“If he’s losing votes in the Philly suburbs, who cares how many votes he’s winning over in exurban Pittsburgh or the western part of the state?”
Florida
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View the complete article, including image, at:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...our-key-states
The Hill
by Ben Kamisar
10/16/2016
Excerpt:
Donald Trump’s campaign is narrowing its focus onto four key swing states as the GOP nominee’s path to the White House continues to constrict.
Sweeping Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania appear to be the Republican’s best chance at winning 270 electoral votes, experts and Republicans concur.
The map continues to tighten for Trump as he slips in the polls, most of which haven’t even taken into account recent allegations of sexual assault and harassment.
“We are in the unenviable position of having to draw the inside straight and win all of those swing states,” said Ohio GOP chairman Matt Borges.
Falling short, or losing once-Republican strongholds of Utah or Arizona would force Trump to string together a handful of other swing states to make up ground.
Here’s the look at where Trump stands in the key states on his tenuous path to victory.
Ohio
The reliable Republican bellwether will be just as vital in 2016 as it is for Republicans in any other year.
By Friday, the RealClearPolitics average of the state polls puts the state at an effective tossup—Clinton up just 1.6 percent.
While Trump has made inroads with rural voters thanks to his tough-on-trade message, he’s running miles behind Sen. Rob Portman, who is running away in his reelection by a safe double-digit margin.
Borges admitted he’s had a “couple of uncomfortable conversations” with Trump recently to urge him to stick to the script and not alienate Portman voters by attacking him as part the GOP establishment that has drawn Trump’s ire.
“If he allows us to execute our strategy and sticks to a message that will work here, we will deliver Ohio,” he said.
“Unfortunately, we have a situation where if we have our message stomped all over, it makes executing some of those things difficult.”
Borges argued that the party and Trump have made strong efforts to shore up the GOP vote—with Trump as a boon for new registrants and the success by the party as a whole to bring on one million more registered Republican voters than in 2012. And he added that strong GOP role models in the state like Portman can help protect the party’s brand from Clinton attacks.
But he admitted that while Ohio may not be a necessity for Democrats, it’s almost certainly required for the GOP.
Pennsylvania
As of now, the Keystone State is the steepest climb for Republicans of the four must-wins. Clinton sits at an 8.4 percent Clinton lead in the RCP average as of Friday, as Trump hasn’t led in a major poll for months.
And Democrats have held the state in every presidential election since 1988, despite numerous attempted incursions by Republicans.
Borges noted that GOP presidential tickets have long targeted the state, but it turns into “fools gold.”
“I wonder if the dynamic is truly that much different this time,” he added.
Geoffrey Skelley, a political analyst with the University of Virginia, pointed to a recent Bloomberg poll that showed Trump down by a margin of 28 points in the four suburban Philadelphia counties. Mitt Romney lost those counties by about 9 points in 2012 and still lost the state.
With Clinton expected to clean up in Philadelphia and Trump looking better in the rural part of the state, those suburban counties are key.
“If he’s losing votes in the Philly suburbs, who cares how many votes he’s winning over in exurban Pittsburgh or the western part of the state?”
Florida
.................................................. ........................
View the complete article, including image, at:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...our-key-states