WHITE HOUSE INSIDER – Tuesday Election Break Down – How Romney Wins

[bsteadman]

WHITE HOUSE INSIDER – Tuesday Election Break Down – How Romney Wins

The Ulsterman Report
Ulsterman
11/2/2012

Excerpt:

A longtime D.C. political operative sends this outline of how Mitt Romney wins Tuesday to become the next President of the United States.

(Insider is certain Mitt Romney will be circling at least 300 electoral votes on Election Night )

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Insider: My work is all but done, so now just like you and a whole lot of others, I’m going into watch and wait mode. That said, here’s how I see Tuesday’s vote playing out based on a combination of first person knowledge of the ground game, a hell of a lot of experience, and just plain old gut feeling. You asked for a break down of my thoughts, so here it is. Going to focus on the swing states and a that surprise win for the governor I told you about before.

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Virginia: We got 13 electorals up for grabs to get the night rolling. Romney takes it by about 60-70 thousand votes. McDonnell has done some very solid work for us in the state and that has been a big advantage.

Pennsylvania: Some major trending for the governor right now that is being totally under-reported by the media. Some counties looking like they will be upwards of 70% Romney. #s will be played tight via media reports during early hours of election night, but watch for a call by around 8:30 or so for the governor. And that my friend, is when the entire liberal establishment really starts to do the backside pucker. The campaign is leaving off Nevada in favor of Pennsylvania this weekend. Much bigger prize. Romney by upwards of 200 thousand votes. Something a lot of the pundits and pollsters are leaving out on the coverage of Pennsylvania is Governor Corbett. He’s been a major player in that state’s power structure for some time, and was a very popular Attorney General there before winning election as governor in 2010. He knows how to defeat Democrats, been doing it for the last couple decades. Beat his Dem opponent in 2010 by almost 10 points. Great ground game and that will pay dividends for us on Tuesday.

North Carolina: Romney. Early call.

Florida: Romney wins this by about 100,000 votes. The Jewish and Cuban votes are putting him well over the top here. Florida is always a big win for the one who gets it, and this time it’s the governor’s.

Wisconsin: Like McDonnell in Virginia, Walker has really helped with the ground game structure in Wisconsin. Incredible work due largely to that structure already being in place for the recent recall vote. Huge pick-up for the governor. The beginning of the “turn out the lights” moment for the Obama campaign. Romney by 30,000 votes which is a huge reversal from 2008. Something interesting has been happening in Wisconsin the last couple years. Major shift toward conservatism.

Iowa: Romney is going to sneak this one out by maybe 5-10 thousand votes. Very tight race. Good news is, we don’t need the state. A pick-up here is a bonus.

Colorado: By now the country will have a very good idea we have elected a new president. Romney will take Colorado by upwards of a 100,000 votes. Maybe a bit more. Like Wisconsin, a big shift away from the 2008 Obama #s.

Oregon: This is my you gotta be crazy call but I mentioned it to you before and I’m sticking to it. The most recent poll out there had Obama up six. That poll was a small sample though, and half that sample came from residents of Portland. The real deal is this, the state is basically split between the two candidates and has a huge % of undecideds who in the end will break for the governor. A late night shocker that will give the governor the ability to call this a mandate election.

Now you probably see I haven’t mentioned Ohio. A couple reasons. Don’t trust the voting out there. I know things can be rigged there more than other states with very few exceptions. (Nevada) That’s just the facts. The Romney team has done a good job of trying to stay ahead of that possibility so I’m hoping for the best but my gut says prepare for the worst. Good news is that Ohio is shaping up to be a state we won’t need if my Pennsylvania prediction holds up. If the governor takes Pennsylvania and Ohio, we got our electoral landslide.

My #s right now, with all the data I’ve compiled, all my experience, and that gut feeling I told you about, has the governor circling about 300 electorals on Tuesday with the chance for a bit more than that if trending really pops for us in the final 48 like we saw happen for Reagan back in ’80.

Now try and enjoy the weekend. Actually, I’ll end with this and I really mean it here. Know I’ve said it already but want to repeat it. If Barack Obama is re-elected on Tuesday they stole it. There is no way my straight up #s are that off. They will have stolen this election. Buried votes, multiple counts, all of that will have been done and to such a degree they risk exposure. But they might be willing to risk it. Ok, that probably doesn’t leave you in the right frame of mind to enjoy your weekend but wanted to say it again. Don’t underestimate the Romney team here though. They have been notified multiple times about this stuff and have the resources to make that kind of stealing much more difficult than previous elections. So while it’s a concern, it’s not something I’m losing sleep over. Not that I sleep much anyways these days.
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View the complete post at:

http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/1...w-romney-wins/

[bsteadman]

Romney 305, Obama 233

Exclusive: Vox Day warns Republicans not to expect much change

WND
Vox Day
11/4/2012

Excerpt:

I am aware that many of the national polls are projecting an election that goes down to the wire. I am cognizant of the many hands being wrung about the possibility that the Electoral College vote will diverge from the popular vote. And it has been impossible to escape Nate Silver’s thrice-weekly predictions in the New York Times that Barack Obama has at least a 538 percent chance of winning the election tomorrow.

There is no need to point out the many technical problems with the polls or the intrinsic flaws and poor performance of various statistical models. Many others have gone into considerable detail doing that. I will simply note that I see no legitimate reason to abandon the conclusion that I reached long before Mitt Romney was nominated the Republican candidate for president, which is that Romney will be the next president of the United States. I do not support the man, and I do not believe he will preside in a manner that is beneficial to the country, the economy or the world; I am simply observing that the patterns of party enthusiasm still appear to be much more akin to 2010 than 2008.

It is always futile to pretend any precision in matters of human behavior. But it is also fun. So, in the spirit of the electoral season, I suggest that Romney will win 305 electoral votes to Obama’s 233. I also expect that he’ll have a margin of victory in the popular vote between three and four percent. It won’t be a landslide, but it also won’t be as close as those who expect Obama to win assume a Romney upset would have to be.

Now, is it possible that I’ve completely misjudged the mood of the electorate while being overly cynical about the professionalism of the mainstream media? Absolutely. If so, we’ll enjoy the benefit of another four years of the most incompetent, most unintentionally tragicomic administration since President Carter’s one term. But I’m not concerned about that. We already know what sort of president Obama will make, which is to say an absentee one. A country can do worse.

What concerns me is the possibility that Romney may not, as so many Republicans assume he must be, the lesser evil. I understand why many conservatives, and even some libertarians, are voting for him. Obama is not clearly going to fix the economy, address the growing national debt or arrest the national decline, so Mitt Romney represents the hope of a change in that regard. The problem is that Romney has shown absolutely no sign of even the smallest interest in addressing the core problems the United States is presently facing. He isn’t going to stop the aging of the Baby Boomers, he isn’t going to stop the Federal Reserve’s insane credit creation, he isn’t going to stop Third World immigration, he isn’t going to stop free trade, and he isn’t going to stop the use of the American military as an unpaid global police force.
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View the complete article at:

http://www.wnd.com/2012/11/romney-305-obama-233/

[bsteadman]

The Election Will Not Be Close

American Thinker
Monty Pelerin
11/5/2012

Excerpt:

The election is tomorrow. The entire buildup to this point has been somewhat surreal. The pollsters tell us that the election is too close to call, but that does not conform with reality.

It is easy to distort reality based on predispositions and desires. For that reason, I state mine. I have no interest in Romney winning other than that he is not Obama. I am not a Republican, although I generally believe that their ideas are less bad than those of Democrats. In a real sense, I am what you might call an "equal-opportunity hater" with respect to politics. I don't want to be ruled by either party, or anyone else for that matter.

Why does it seem impossible to call this race? My eyes tell me things either that pollsters cannot see or that people are unwilling to tell them. Here are a few of them:

• The country is stuck in a recession which Obama has made worse. After four years, he has no plan to remedy matters.

• Foreign policy, arguably less understandable to voters, is disintegrating in front of their eyes. Benghazi is exploding all over Obama and is something he is unable to blame on someone else.

• More people are on food stamps and welfare than ever before. People sense that Obama is not displeased with this condition.

• Incomes are falling, and unemployment is not. College graduates cannot get jobs commensurate with their education. Despair is everywhere.

• Net worth is falling, and prices are rising. People's standard of living has declined for four straight years.

• Retirement is no longer an option for large segments of the population.

These are relatively objective measures which people see and feel.

Facts matter, especially to those concerned about the country, their futures, and the futures of their grandchildren. The electorate may not be the brightest, as H.L. Mencken always reminded us. But they do feel pain and do not relish it. Cats who jump on a hot stove are smart enough never to jump on a stove again. That may be the driving motivation in this election.

Even the so-called parasite class (dependents living at the expense of others) understand what is in their best interest. They will vote for whoever promises to extend their benefits. Yet the so-called parasite class is much smaller than the class who receive government assistance. Many are there not by choice, but by circumstance. Some have never been in this position before. They want a job again, where they can have a purpose, a role, and respect. Most who paid into the social insurance programs understand that these programs are not sustainable. They have been offered a choice that allows them to retain their current benefits or to pretend there is no problem. They will vote to protect what they have.

Given these obvious conditions, it doesn't seem that this election should even be close. The country is not that far gone! Arguably, Barack Obama has surpassed Jimmy Carter as the worst president of anyone alive today. Only the Kool-Aid drinkers and the infatuated mainstream media are so far gone as to not understand that.

There is not one person who voted for John McCain last time who will switch and vote for Obama this time. There are many previous Obama supporters who plan to vote for Romney. Republicans who stayed home four years ago rather than vote for McCain are not going to stay home again. Many will vote not because of Romney, but in spite of Romney. They want no more of Obama and his policies.

Crowd comparisons between Romney and Obama reveal Obama as a fad whose time has passed. There is energy and enthusiasm in the Romney campaign. There is anger and pettiness in the Obama campaign.

Early voting suggests a tsunami for Romney, at least when compared to the corresponding numbers four years ago. Women are breaking for Romney. States that were never thought to be in play by pollsters suddenly look even or even trending toward Romney. Pennsylvania and Michigan are two examples. Nothing is moving toward Obama. Everything is moving away.
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View the complete article at:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/..._be_close.html