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Bayes' Theorem and Mr. Obama's Literary Agency
American Thinker
Jason Kissner
5/21/2012
Excerpts:
"A mathematical tool is offered to evaluate the likelihood, in light of the Breitbart disclosure, that Mr. Obama was born in the United States.
How ought one evaluate the evidentiary significance of the 1991 literary agency promotional booklet claiming that their client Barack Obama was born in Kenya?
The "birther" issue is clearly one that is very charged. This contribution is directed toward those persons who are willing to reason carefully about it no matter what conclusion they may have reached so far.
It should be acknowledged at the outset that no conclusive answers are offered herein. In fact, the chief result of the following probabilistic analysis is that interesting and potentially important questions are raised that, absent the analysis, might not otherwise have been asked.
........................................
So, all told, is the birther position correct? Maybe.
Is the birther position at present unreasonable? Surely not; in fact, it may well be the most reasonable position to adopt even if you still think you had very good reasons to the contrary in advance of the promotional booklet's release."
View the complete article at:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/...ry_agency.html
American Thinker
Jason Kissner
5/21/2012
Excerpts:
"A mathematical tool is offered to evaluate the likelihood, in light of the Breitbart disclosure, that Mr. Obama was born in the United States.
How ought one evaluate the evidentiary significance of the 1991 literary agency promotional booklet claiming that their client Barack Obama was born in Kenya?
The "birther" issue is clearly one that is very charged. This contribution is directed toward those persons who are willing to reason carefully about it no matter what conclusion they may have reached so far.
It should be acknowledged at the outset that no conclusive answers are offered herein. In fact, the chief result of the following probabilistic analysis is that interesting and potentially important questions are raised that, absent the analysis, might not otherwise have been asked.
........................................
So, all told, is the birther position correct? Maybe.
Is the birther position at present unreasonable? Surely not; in fact, it may well be the most reasonable position to adopt even if you still think you had very good reasons to the contrary in advance of the promotional booklet's release."
View the complete article at:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/...ry_agency.html