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Upcoming polls to lock in GOP debate field
More than a few Republicans are hoping their numbers will tick up at just the right time this month.
Politico
Steven Shepard
7/7/2015
Excerpt:
John Kasich may be the last Republican to enter the presidential fray, but his timing could be the best: Exactly two weeks after the splash of his planned announcement on July 21, Fox News Channel will average together the latest polls of the Republican field and determine which 10 of the 16 announced candidates will participate in the first debate in Cleveland.
Making the cut gives a candidate the platform to stand out in a crowded field; not making the cut leaves him or her knocking on the door.
Every candidate — with the exceptions of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio — is in danger of losing his or her place. That leaves the rest of the field hoping their numbers will tick up at just the right time, knowing that the tiniest fluctuation of numbers could be the difference between acceptance and rejection. The difference between being on the main debate stage and being relegated to the B-team is likely be at most 1 or 2 percentage points.
Kasich’s announcement could generate enough publicity to give him at least a brief bump — and a spot in the Aug. 6 debate at the expense of a rival. Political neophytes Ben Carson and Donald Trump seem likely to generate enough publicity on their own to get them over the polling hurdle. If Kasich can bounce into the top 10, that would leave the rest of the field — 10 candidates, almost all of whom have held major elective office — fighting for four spots.
“There will be a huge amount of attention and coverage around the first debate,” said one aide to a GOP presidential campaign, to whom POLITICO granted anonymity to discuss strategy candidly. “That’s when we’ll see a lot of voters tune in for the first time.”
In an effort to cut down on the more than two dozen debates held in the 2012 cycle, the Republican National Committee is sponsoring nine debates through March 1 — and warning candidates if they attend any unsanctioned gatherings they will not be invited to official events. Fox’s decision to further limit the debate to the top 10 candidates — in an effort to avoid a cacophony of voices — makes qualifying for the debate a necessity for campaigns struggling to appear viable.
And since national polls will determine which candidates are invited, a few are increasingly desperate to boost their horse-race standing in the days leading up to the debate — in essence, generating a bounce or sugar high in late July that will either vault them into the top 10 or help them stay there.
Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who lost a Senate race in California five years ago, is banking on qualifying for the debate, but she is currently outside the top 10.
She is personally wealthy but has raised only $1.4 million for her campaign thus far. That leaves her relying on earned media to convey her message: She appeared on Fox six times last month, third among GOP candidates, according to the liberal news-tracking group Media Matters.
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View the complete article, including image, at:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/0...ld-119793.html
More than a few Republicans are hoping their numbers will tick up at just the right time this month.
Politico
Steven Shepard
7/7/2015
Excerpt:
John Kasich may be the last Republican to enter the presidential fray, but his timing could be the best: Exactly two weeks after the splash of his planned announcement on July 21, Fox News Channel will average together the latest polls of the Republican field and determine which 10 of the 16 announced candidates will participate in the first debate in Cleveland.
Making the cut gives a candidate the platform to stand out in a crowded field; not making the cut leaves him or her knocking on the door.
Every candidate — with the exceptions of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio — is in danger of losing his or her place. That leaves the rest of the field hoping their numbers will tick up at just the right time, knowing that the tiniest fluctuation of numbers could be the difference between acceptance and rejection. The difference between being on the main debate stage and being relegated to the B-team is likely be at most 1 or 2 percentage points.
Kasich’s announcement could generate enough publicity to give him at least a brief bump — and a spot in the Aug. 6 debate at the expense of a rival. Political neophytes Ben Carson and Donald Trump seem likely to generate enough publicity on their own to get them over the polling hurdle. If Kasich can bounce into the top 10, that would leave the rest of the field — 10 candidates, almost all of whom have held major elective office — fighting for four spots.
“There will be a huge amount of attention and coverage around the first debate,” said one aide to a GOP presidential campaign, to whom POLITICO granted anonymity to discuss strategy candidly. “That’s when we’ll see a lot of voters tune in for the first time.”
In an effort to cut down on the more than two dozen debates held in the 2012 cycle, the Republican National Committee is sponsoring nine debates through March 1 — and warning candidates if they attend any unsanctioned gatherings they will not be invited to official events. Fox’s decision to further limit the debate to the top 10 candidates — in an effort to avoid a cacophony of voices — makes qualifying for the debate a necessity for campaigns struggling to appear viable.
And since national polls will determine which candidates are invited, a few are increasingly desperate to boost their horse-race standing in the days leading up to the debate — in essence, generating a bounce or sugar high in late July that will either vault them into the top 10 or help them stay there.
Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who lost a Senate race in California five years ago, is banking on qualifying for the debate, but she is currently outside the top 10.
She is personally wealthy but has raised only $1.4 million for her campaign thus far. That leaves her relying on earned media to convey her message: She appeared on Fox six times last month, third among GOP candidates, according to the liberal news-tracking group Media Matters.
.................................................. ..
View the complete article, including image, at:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/0...ld-119793.html